Abstract：Tibet Autonomous Region plans to achieve an annual grain output of 1 million tons, annual vegetable output of 1 million tons, meat and milk output of 1 million tons, and quality man-made pastoral grassland of 1 million mu (66,667 hectares) by 2020. This article analyzes respectively the influences of the four 1-million targets on Tibetan farmers' income growth and agricultural industrialization. It points out that developing the grass industry not only works to improve farmers' income and living standards, but is also important in developing modern agriculture and sustainable agriculture in Tibet. It also identifies grass-related industries as vital to achieving the goal of 1 -million-ton egg and milk output by 2020. It proposes replacing cash subsidy with grass subsidy as a stimulus package to improve the development of grass-related industries.

Key words: develop grass industry, Tibet, modern agriculture, development

Tibet is special nationally as it has large stretches of poverty-stricken areas. Over 80% of its population are farmers and herdsmen. Great changes have taken place ever since the democratic reform over 50 years ago, and in 2015 people's average disposable income reached 8,244 yuan. But Tibetan economy is still a typical self-sufficient agro-economy, with no distinctive agricultural products, low profits, low development momentum, and very small scales. All these have hindered agricultural development and farmers' income.

I. Analysis of the Four 1-million Targets

1. Current state and 2020 goal of Tibetan agriculture

The 13th Five Year Plan in Tibet sets the following goals: reaching a 13% increase of rural disposable income per capital by 2020, achieving four 1-million goals: an annual grain output of 1 million tons, annual vegetable output of 1 million tons, meat and milk output of 1 million tons, and quality man-made pastoral grassland of 1 million mu (66,667 hectares) by 2020. By the end of 2015, Tibet has basically achieved annual grain output of 1 million tons. Vegetable output has reached 820,000 tons, meat and milk output was 620,000 tons, and quality pastoral grassland reached 220,000 mu (14,667 hectares).

2. Grain industry

Tibet's annual grain output is 1 million tons, with a lot of government spending, and 70% of arable land being used to ensure such a result. Highland barley for processing is the key for the future development of the grain industry. But as Tibetan highland barley is 20% more expensive than barley in neighboring provinces (0.8-1.2 yuan/kg) and so has no competitive edge, companies would rather use barley from other provinces. Therefore, the grain industry with barley as mainstay should focus more on keeping production scale and raising profitability, and cannot be the main drive to increase farmers' income.

3. Vegetable production

In 2015 the region's vegetable production reached 820,000 tons. Vegetable prices have been high, and more greenhouses are being built. Therefore, the 1-million-ton goal should not be hard to reach within the next 2 or 3 years. The vegetable industry should be developed mainly on its own, with government guidance to expand its scale.

4. Meat and dairy industry

Statistics show that in the first quarter of 2015, there were 19.8 million livestock in Tibet, while actual livestock number normally exceeds statistics. Current meat and dairy output is 620,000 tons, which means to reach the 1-million-ton goal, there needs to be at least 20% growth in livestock number, given breeds are good and breeding quality is high. Grass is foremost to livestock industry. With the current traditional grassland herding, it's difficult to realize the 1-million-ton goal by 2020. The annual hay output of most of the natural grassland is only 50kg/mu. Coupled with problems of over grazing, grassland degradation and ecological deterioration, natural grassland can no longer afford more livestock. Therefore, the solution of Tibet's meat and dairy industry lies in agricultural areas and semi-pastoral areas.

5. Grass Industry

Grass industry is the key to realizing the goal of 1 million tons of meat and milk output. To this end, Tibet proposed to build 1 million mu of high-quality artificial grass base in 2020. According to the usual proportion of 1 cows to 3 mu of high yield forage (silage corn optimal), this grass base is far from enough. At present, there're 1.8 million mu of artificial grassland area in Tibet, only half of which are of high quality and high yield. The current price of straw already reaches 0.8~2.0 yuan / kg. This means growing artificial grass yields more direct economic benefits than growing barley, and people's income can go up more significantly. The prospects for developing the grass industry are broad and bright.

II. Good Basis for Developing Grass Industry

Developing the grass industry is ideal for Tibet in terms of its climate, agricultural level, quality of farmers, and transition from traditional agriculture to modern agriculture. A modern agricultural system with the grass industry at the core can promote Tibet's agricultural development, improve rural eco-system, increase farmers' income and raise farmers' living standards. It's also significant for poverty alleviation and the building of the new socialist countryside.

1. Combination of farming and animal husbandry is a characteristic of Tibetan agriculture

Traditionally Tibetan agriculture combines farming with animal husbandry. Livestock industry is largely present in both farming areas and pastoral areas. This is a result of Tibet's natural conditions and the need of farmers and herdsmen. Combination of farming and livestock industry lays a solid foundation for the grass industry.

2. Traditional farming in Tibet emphasizes both grain and grass

Grain and forage grass production has been closely linked in Tibet since ancient times. Whether it is wheat or barley, farmers have, without exception, preferred varieties with stem height of over 110cm. Shorter varieties have never been popular no matter how high their yields are. The fundamental reason is that grain and forage are both emphasized. Grain feeds people, and forage feeds livestock.

3. Developing grass industry improves and upgrades traditional agriculture in Tibet

The reason why Tibetan grain production still did not reach 1 million tons in 2015 was "grass". Until forage grass shortage is solved, short-stem barley varieties cannot be popularized in Tibet. Currently, all wheat straws in Tibet are being utilized, and none is burnt. This shows how important forage grass is. Therefore, forage grass security is as important as grain security in Tibet. Compared with growing crops, growing grass is a more simple process. It requires fewer manpower, material input, and investment. This is perfect for Tibet which is short of rural labor, low living standards and low production investment. Planting grass and raising livestock gives rise to the output of butter, milk, meat, wool and other animal products and can dramatically improve farmers' life. Excess products can also be sold, which farmers are likely to accept.

III. Comprehensive Analysis of Grass Industry on Tibetan Agricultural Development

1. Influence on Tibetan agricultural eco-system

Grassland degradation, land degradation and frequent natural disasters are the main problems of agricultural ecology in Tibet. The best way to curb grassland and land degradation is to develop the artificial grassland in suitable regions of Tibet. Grass planting can be effective within one year, especially in areas 4500m above sea level where only grass could grow normally.

2. Influence to grain production

Grass and crop rotation can effectively improve the physicochemical properties of soil, promote the formation of soil aggregate, and alleviate soil compaction. Grass crop rotation can be carried out in river valley areas below 3800m, so double bumper harvests of grain and forage can be achieved, especially with forage of legume family. Developing grass industry has obvious effects on stabilizing grain yield and maintaining the quality of cultivated land.

3. Influence to agriculture and farmers' income

High grass prices stimulate the grass industry. In Gaize and Cuoqin of Ali area, barley straw can fetch a price of 4-5 yuan/kg. In 2015 when draught struck the areas, straw prices were over 3 yuan/kg in Naqu. Such high prices can work as stimulus for farmers to grow forage grass and therefore increase their income. The direct economic benefits of grass is higher than grain, and grass and livestock yields higher indirect benefits.

4. Influence to relative industries

Forage grass can drive a number of related industries. In addition to animal husbandry, it can promote the development of seed, transportation, agricultural machinery and other industries.

Grass planting can be developed in areas with different elevations in Tibet. Grass can be processed into grass bundles, grass pellets, silage, grass powder, auxiliary fodder, etc, boosting grass processing industry.

5. Influence to modern and sustainable agriculture

At present, Tibet is accelerating the development of traditional agriculture to modern agriculture. Building a modern agriculture industry system with grass industry as the core also reflects the requirements of high quality, eco-friendly and safe agriculture, with broad development prospects.

IV. Policies for Developing Grass Industry

Policy support is priority to developing grass industry. At present, Tibet has no preferential policy for grass industry. Every year, the central government invests about 2 billion yuan in the grassland ecological protection subsidy mechanism in Tibet. A mere cash compensation is not as good as if the government spends part of the investment on purchasing high quality forage and giving them to farmers. It should establish pilot areas for grassland protection and tiered ecological compensation, and explore a mechanism suitable to Tibet to protect grassland eco-system and compensate different eco-categories. We should encourage companies, individuals and institutions to transform wasteland along rivers and carry out artificial grass planting. We should establish demonstration bases to display artificial grass planting technology in different ecological areas and in regions of different altitudes.

（Jin Tao, researcher, Agricultural Resources And Environmental Research Institute of Tibet Autonomous Region）